The hottest machine tool market may have cyclical

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The machine tool market may fluctuate periodically

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of 62000 cutting machine tools was completed in October, down 19.5% from the same period last year. From January to October, a total of 665000 sets were completed, with a year-on-year increase of -16.9%

although the data is not encouraging enough, compared with the decline of more than 30% in July and August this year, it is also gratifying

the growth rate dropped sharply

according to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to September 2012, the total industrial output value of the national machine tool industry was 568.007 billion yuan, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year; The sales output value reached 550.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.04%; the export delivery value of the machine tool industry reached 33.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.39%

however, the growth rate of the national machine tool industry declined and stabilized year on year, and the growth rate of the total industrial output value decreased by 23.11 percentage points year on year; The growth rate of industrial sales output value decreased by 23.28 percentage points year-on-year; The growth rate of export delivery value was 16.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.29 percentage points

the author verified this data with a person from China Machine Tool Industry Association. The other party told the association that the economic operation report of the third quarter would be released in a few days, but it is certain that the decline is very serious

this can be verified by the three quarterly reports of several listed machine tool companies

for example, Shenyang Machine Tool (000410) achieved an operating revenue of 5.657 billion yuan from January to September, a year-on-year decrease of 24.75%; The operating profit was a loss of 16.97 million yuan, compared with 139 million yuan in the same period last year. However, according to its analysts, this is mainly due to the slowdown of China's macroeconomic growth and other factors related to the protection of experimental machine products. In 2012, the market demand of the machine tool industry continued to decline, the company's sales revenue fell year-on-year, and the company's profit fell significantly compared with the same period of the previous year

Qinchuan development (000837) achieved an operating income of 909million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.91%, and the net profit attributable to the listed company was 5.73 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.55%

Kunming Machine Tool () achieved an operating income of 866million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 36.27%; The operating profit was -5.96 million yuan, up from 78.83 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the stress at the right angle point has risen enough to produce the initial tearing. The main reason is that the company's machine tool sales have declined significantly since this year due to the impact of macroeconomic factors such as the national adjustment of industrial structure and the slowdown of economic growth, resulting in lower operating income

in addition, the announcement also shows that as of september30,2012, the newly increased contract amount of Kunming Machine tool was 697million yuan, and the NC rate was 72.96%. The company has a backlog of finished products, including 426 ordinary machine tools, 69 CNC machine tools and 13 other products, of which ordinary machine tools are flow products and CNC machine tools are produced according to orders. In view of this situation, the company will continue to promote de stocking

rare "leisure"

in fact, the pressure of inventory increase is no longer a case. China Machine Tool Association issued a report earlier that pointed out that in the first half of 2012, the inventory of machine tool industry increased significantly, and the sales rate of industrial products decreased month by month

"due to the lag of statistical data, the data analysis can not timely reflect the decline of production and sales growth." The staff of the Association told the author, "from the investigation of the association, the decline in the third quarter has not been effectively contained."

wubolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association, once said: "at present, the inventory of enterprises has generally increased, with an estimated year-on-year increase of about 20%, and some leading enterprises have reached 60%.

orders for high-end large-scale machine tools are still full, while the problem of increasing the inventory of ordinary non CNC machine tools is very prominent. In addition, there is a feature that the trend of economic CNC machine tools and medium and high-end CNC machine tools has been differentiated."

according to the analysis of statistical data by the marketing department of the association, the sales rate of key associated enterprises in the machine tool industry decreased in the first half of the year. According to the practice of previous years, the sales rate will rise month by month after the Spring Festival, but this year this situation did not occur, and one third of the enterprises' product sales rate fell by more than 5%

the decline of production and sales rate directly leads to the increase of inventory. According to the analysis of the association in the first half of the year, the inventory of finished products of metal cutting machine tools increased by about 25% year-on-year, while it was only 3.5% at the end of 2011; The inventory of forming machine tools, machine tool electrical appliances, machine tool accessories and cutting tools also increased slightly year-on-year

the first half report of the association shows that the growth rate of major economic indicators of China's machine tool industry continues to decline, showing the following operating characteristics: (1) the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales continues to decline; (2) Obvious upgrade of user needs; (3) The import volume is still at a high level: (4) exports have maintained steady growth

according to the report, the machine tool industry entered a period of low-speed and stable growth in the second half of the year, the downward trend may continue, and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises is more urgent. It is expected that the whole industry will maintain a single digit growth rate in the second half of the year, among which the metal processing machine tool may have a negative growth, especially the metal cutting machine tool is bound to decline throughout the year. If there is no special good news, its total industrial output value should drop by more than 10% compared with the same period last year

in order to learn about the operation of specific enterprises, the author interviewed several enterprises. The common view is that they are pessimistic. Front line employees report that they are now living less, and many workers are beginning to take turns off, accompanied by a decrease in income of course

"in the past, we normally worked for six days. Sometimes we had to work overtime on Sundays and take a half month break. Now it is generally five days, or even threeorfour days a week." Said an employee of a machine tool enterprise in Jiangsu

"our basic salary has not been reduced, but the bonus has been reduced." A machine tool administrator in Hanzhong said: ● standard pad mold aperture: φ 33 ± 0.1mm "in the past, there were bonuses every month, but now there are only two bonuses in the first quarter."

some salespeople say that the industry is too cold now. Although they often go out to visit customers, it is really hard to be free compared with the past. "But our income is linked to sales. There is no new contract, and our income is greatly reduced."

talk about confidence again

there is no cold market, only cold enterprises

for the future market trend, some people think it will continue to be depressed, and enterprises need to be cautious; Some people think it will gradually show a good growth momentum; Some people also believe that as the state attaches importance to the high-end manufacturing industry, it will not have a great impact on the market of high-end machine tool products

in fact, whether the market is depressed, severe or good, whether the rigid demand is not reduced or the high-end market is stable, in short, market opportunities are everywhere and market demand is always there. The key also depends on whether the enterprise can gain insight into opportunities and capture business opportunities. Those who get the first opportunity will get the market and those who get business opportunities will get development. Because there is no cold market, only cold enterprises

the market may fluctuate periodically. However, any machine tool enterprise aiming at sustainable development should not have the difference between off-season and peak season, and between cold and hot. Cold and slack seasons are only effective for enterprises, but not for the market. Because no matter how cold the market is, there are enterprises with hot sales and products in short supply, and no matter how hot the market is, there will be few enterprises

because there is only one market, it is very rational, but there are tens of millions of enterprises, but the situation is very different. The market is fair and just. Only the enterprises and products that fit their tastes will be favored

therefore, how long the market downturn will last remains to be answered. However, one thing is certain that lengqing is a phase. 1. Experiments and treatments can be carried out according to GB, ISO, ASTM, JIS and other standards. For me, if I believe it, I will have it. If I don't believe it, I won't

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI